
KAGAN SERHAN
Founder & Geopolitical Risk Intelligence Lead
Male46 y/oConsultantLive in BelgiumNationality Turkey
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Founder & Geopolitical Risk Intelligence Lead
NERAI2019.01-Current(7 years)NERAI is an AI-enabled strategic intelligence firm focused on geopolitical risk, country risk, and early-warning monitoring across 60+ countries. As founder and lead analyst, I conduct in-depth primary research and deliver structured intelligence to decision-makers across the private sector and institutional clients. ▸ Conduct continuous primary research and situational monitoring of geopolitical hotspots — with particular depth in the Middle East (Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Gulf), Eastern Europe, and Russia-sensitive environments. ▸ Build and apply structured risk indicator frameworks covering political instability, military escalation, international crisis dynamics, sanctions exposure, energy security, and market-access risk. ▸ Author concise executive-style briefings, risk alerts and scenario analyses, converting open-source intelligence, event data and policy signals into clear, decision-relevant insights. ▸ Developed NERAI's proprietary intelligence platform: a real-time monitoring system tracking political, economic and security risk indicators across 60+ countries — providing the analytical infrastructure behind every client deliverable. ▸ Delivered bespoke geopolitical risk analysis for international clients across supply chain risk, country risk, and cross-border investment decisions — operating fully remotely and across time zones. ▸ Established NERAI BV as a registered Belgian company (VAT BE 0726.888.207), demonstrating the transition from independent analyst to structured institutional analytical provider.Senior Intelligence & Strategy Analyst
Turkish Prime Ministry2005.01-2016.01(11 years)Led and contributed to complex intelligence and risk-assessment activities in high-pressure government environments, supporting senior decision-makers on sensitive international, security and cross-border matters. ▸ Conducted structured primary information-gathering, risk analysis and escalation support across multi- stakeholder topics involving geopolitics, security, and international affairs. ▸ Produced decision-focused assessments combining multiple data streams, early warning indicators, and external developments — presented to senior leadership in concise, actionable formats. ▸ Gained deep expertise in the Middle East, Turkey's regional environment, Eastern Europe, and sanctions- sensitive jurisdictions through sustained analytical engagement. ▸ Supported crisis-response and interagency coordination processes requiring timely risk identification, disciplined execution, and sound analytical judgment under pressure. ▸ Managed collaboration across diverse institutional stakeholders — ensuring alignment and effective communication in politically sensitive, high-stakes environments.
Educational experience
Pennsylvania State University, USA
International Affairs / Security Studies2013.09-2015.06(2 years)Security studiesMiddle East Technical University, Ankara, Turkey
International Relations1998.09-2003.06(5 years)International Relations
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